{"id":164,"date":"2017-01-02T17:38:55","date_gmt":"2017-01-02T17:38:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mohamed-boraik.com\/?p=164"},"modified":"2024-08-14T10:17:13","modified_gmt":"2024-08-14T10:17:13","slug":"egyptscenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/strategic-exploration.org\/stratigic-studies\/egyptscenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"\u062a\u0635\u0648\u0631 \u0639\u0646 \u0645\u0622\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0631\u064a\u0629\u060c \u064a\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0648\u0636\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648\u0647\u0627\u062a"},"content":{"rendered":"

1-1-2017<\/p>\n

\u062a\u0635\u0648\u0631 \u0639\u0646 \u0645\u0622\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0631\u064a\u0629<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629:<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

1<\/strong> \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u062a\u0648\u062c\u0647\u0627\u062a\u0647\u060c \u0645\u0639 \u062a\u0641\u0627\u0642\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0623\u0632\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0646\u064a.<\/p>\n

2<\/strong> \u0627\u0636\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0628 \u0634\u0639\u0628\u064a \u0634\u0627\u0645\u0644 (\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0636\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u064a\u0648\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a):<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u0623. \u0645\u0624\u0642\u062a \u0648\u0645\u062d\u062f\u062f<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u0628. \u0627\u0646\u0647\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629 (\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u062a\u0635\u0639\u064a\u062f \u0645\u062a\u0628\u0627\u062f\u0644 \u0644\u0646\u0632\u0627\u0639 \u0623\u0647\u0644\u064a)<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u062c. \u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u0636 \u0648\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0631 \u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a<\/p>\n

3<\/strong> \u0627\u0636\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0628 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u063a\u064a\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0623\u0633:<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u0623. \u0628\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u064a \u0633\u0631\u064a\u0639 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0624\u0633\u0633\u0629<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u0628. \u0641\u0648\u0636\u0649 \u0634\u0639\u0628\u064a\u0629<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u062c. \u0641\u0648\u0636\u0649 \u0623\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 (\u0642\u062f \u064a\u0635\u0627\u062d\u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0646\u0641\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u062d\u062a\u062c\u0627\u062c\u064a\u060c \u0623\u0648 \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0637\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627)<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u062f. \u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u0636 \u0648\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0631 \u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a<\/p>\n

4<\/strong> \u062a\u0639\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a \u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0637\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0646\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a (\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0646\u064a) \u2013 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0623\u0648\u0633\u0639 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0641\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a.<\/p>\n

5<\/strong> \u062a\u0639\u062f\u064a\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0633\u0639 \/ \u062a\u063a\u064a\u064a\u0631 \u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a:<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u0623. \u062a\u0631\u0627\u0643\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0641\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0635\u0644\u0627\u062d\u064a<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u0628. \u0627\u0646\u0641\u062c\u0627\u0631 \u0634\u0639\u0628\u064a \u0645\u0646\u0638\u0645 (\u062b\u0648\u0631\u0629)<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0648\u0627\u0639\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u062c\u064a\u062d\u0627\u062a:<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

1<\/strong> \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0648\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 \u0648\u062a\u0643\u0648\u064a\u0646\u0647 (\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0632\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0624\u0633\u0633\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0639\u0628\u064a \u0644\u0635\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0647 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639\u060c \u0642\u0646\u0627\u0639\u0629 \u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u062f\u064a\u0644\u061f\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0633\u0643\u0631\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0646\u064a\u061f\u060c \u062a\u0645\u0627\u0633\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0624\u0633\u0633\u0629)<\/p>\n

2<\/strong> \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0624\u062b\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062c\u064a\u0648\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 (\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0642\u0644\u064a\u0645\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0627\u0647) .. \u062a\u0635\u0627\u0639\u062f<\/p>\n

3<\/strong> \u0631\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0639\u0628\u064a \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u062c\u0627\u062c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644 (\u0627\u062d\u062a\u062c\u0627\u062c \u0623\u0645\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0633\u0643 \u0623\u0645\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0646\u064a \u0648\u062f\u0648\u0627\u0639\u064a \u0627\u0646\u0647\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629)<\/p>\n

4<\/strong> \u062a\u0637\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 (\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642 \u0648\u062a\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u0646\u064a\u0648\u064a \u0648\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0635\u0644 \u0642\u0627\u0639\u062f\u064a\u060c \u0623\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062c\u0632 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0634\u0631\u0630\u0645\u061f).. \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u062d\u0635\u0644 \u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0627 \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0642\u0648\u0649 \u062f\u0627\u0641\u0639\u0629 (\u0645\u0646\u0627\u062e \u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u060c \u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0646\u0648\u0627\u0629 \u062a\u0635\u062d\u064a\u062d\u064a\u0629)<\/p>\n

5<\/strong> \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0644\u0648\u0647\u0627 (\u0628\u0642\u0627\u0624\u0647\u0627 \u0643\u0641\u0632\u0627\u0639\u0629\u060c \u062a\u0635\u0627\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0631\u0647\u0627\u0628\u060c \u0623\u0645 \u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0639\u0629\u061f).. \u062a\u0628\u0639\u0627 \u0644\u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0647\u062f\u0626\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0645\u062d\u0635\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0632\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u064a<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0627\u062c\u062d \u062f\u0648\u0646 \u062a\u062f\u062e\u0644 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648\u0647\u0627\u062a 1\u060c 2 \u0623\u060c 3\u0623<\/p>\n

\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0623\u0645\u0648\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u062d\u0627\u0644 \u062a\u062f\u062e\u0644 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a:<\/u><\/strong> (\u062a\u0628\u0639\u0627 \u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0648\u0627\u0639\u0644\u060c \u0648\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0641\u0639 \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0647\u0627)<\/p>\n

2 \u062c\u060c 3 \u062f\u060c 4\u060c 5 \u0623\u060c 5 \u0628<\/p>\n

\u0645\u062a\u0637\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u062e\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

1 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a \u0648\u062a\u0642\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0628\u0636\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629: \u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0627\u061f\u060c \u0623\u0648 \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642 (\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0647\u062f\u0626\u0629)\u060c \u0623\u0648 \u062a\u062f\u0627\u0641\u0639 (\u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629)<\/p>\n

2 \u063a\u064a\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0627 \u0643\u062a\u0646\u0638\u064a\u0645 \u0648\u0643\u0623\u0647\u062f\u0627\u0641 \u0644\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0627\u0643.. \u0645\u0645\u0627\u064a\u0642\u0644\u0644 \u0648\u0636\u0639\u0647\u0645 \u0643\u0641\u0632\u0627\u0639\u0629 \u0623\u0648\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u062a\u0647\u062f\u064a\u062f \u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645\u060c \u0648\u064a\u062a\u064a\u062d \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0623\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a \u0623\u0648 \u062a\u0648\u0633\u0639 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u062c\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0639\u0628\u064a (\u0627\u0644\u0622\u0645\u0646)\u060c \u00a0\u2013 \u0648\u063a\u064a\u0627\u0628\u0647\u0645 \u0623\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0627 \u0643\u0630\u0631\u064a\u0639\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0646\u064a-\u0639\u0633\u0643\u0631\u064a.<\/p>\n

3 \u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u062a\u0634\u0643\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0637\u0646\u064a\u0629 (\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u064f\u0639\u0627\u0631\u0636): \u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639\u0627\u062a \u2013 \u062a\u0645\u0643\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0628\u0627\u0628 \u2013 \u062a\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0632\u0628\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

4 \u062a\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0641\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0635\u0644\u0627\u062d\u064a (\u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0628\u0637\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0632\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0634\u0631\u064a\u062d\u0629): \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0629\u060c \u062a\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0631 \u0631\u0624\u064a\u060c \u062a\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0631 \u0642\u064a\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0648\u0643\u0627\u062f\u0631\u064a\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0639\u0628\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/u>\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629\u00a0\u062d\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0634\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648\u0647\u0627\u062a:<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0627) \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629:<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

– \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u0621 \u0647\u064a \u062d\u0635\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0639\u0644\u0629<\/strong> \u0641\u064a \u062e\u0644\u0642 \u0645\u0634\u0647\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0641\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a (\u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0633\u0643\u0631\u064a..) \u0645\u0639 \u062a\u0631\u062a\u064a\u0628 \u0641\u0627\u0639\u0644\u064a\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062e\u0644\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629 (\u0645\u0646 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0631\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629).. \u0648\u064a\u0644\u064a \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0648\u0636\u0639 \u062a\u0635\u0648\u0631 \u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a \u062d\u0648\u0644 \u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648 \u062a\u062f\u062e\u0644 \u0643\u0644 \u0637\u0631\u0641<\/strong> \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0634\u0643\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u0642\u0639 (\u0648\u0647\u0646\u0627 \u0644\u0627\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u064a\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u064a<\/strong> \u062a\u0628\u0639\u0627 \u0644\u0645\u064f\u0639\u0637\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0647\u0645: \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u064a\u0632\u0627\u062a<\/strong> \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0641\u064a \u0628\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u062a\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0643\u0644 \u0637\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0645\u0633\u0644\u0643\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0624\u062b\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0641\u0636\u064a\u0644\u0647 \u0644\u062e\u064a\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0638\u0631\u0648\u0641 \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0628\u0647\u0629.. \u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0627\u0633\u0628\u0642 \u0642\u062f \u064a\u062f\u0641\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u0643\u0645\u062d\u0635\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u062e\u0637\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0648 \u062a\u0628\u0646\u064a \u062e\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a \u064a\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0648\u0632 \u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0644\u062d\u064a \u0623\u0648 \u0645\u064f\u0639\u0637\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0631\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u062f\u0626\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n

– \u064a\u0623\u062a\u064a \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0631\u0633\u0645 \u062e\u0631\u064a\u0637\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629<\/strong> (\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0635\u0627\u0631\u0639\u0629) \u062a\u0628\u0639\u0627 \u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0632\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u0649 \u0648\u0622\u062b\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0641\u0639 (\u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0648\u0638\u064a\u0641\u0647) \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u064f\u062d\u062f\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0646\u0647\u0627\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0645\u0646 \u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 (\u0628\u064a\u0626\u0629 \u0634\u0639\u0628\u064a\u0629\u060c\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0621 \u0645\u0624\u0633\u0633\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0645\u0635\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u062d\u0633\u0645 \u0639\u0633\u0643\u0631\u064a\u060c \u0637\u0631\u0641 \u0625\u0642\u0644\u064a\u0645\u064a \u0645\u0624\u062b\u0631 \u0628\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u062d\u062f\u064a\u0629..). \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u0647\u064f\u0646\u0627 \u062a\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u062f\u0626\u064a\u0629<\/strong> \u0644\u0645\u064f\u062c\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629.<\/p>\n

– \u064a\u0623\u062a\u064a \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0628\u0643\u0644 \u0637\u0631\u0641 (\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064f\u0641\u0627\u062c\u0626\u0629) \u062d\u062a\u0649 \u0648\u0625\u0646 \u0628\u0639\u064f\u062f\u062a\u060c \u0648\u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u062d\u064a\u062b (\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u062f\u0648\u062b\u0647\u0627\u060c \u0648\u062d\u062c\u0645 \u0623\u062b\u0631\u0647\u0627) \u0628\u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0636\u0645\u064a\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0636\u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0627\u0631\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648\u0647\u0627\u062a.<\/p>\n

– \u0648\u0623\u062e\u064a\u0631\u0627.. \u062a\u0623\u062a\u064a \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0645\u062d\u064a\u0635 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u062c\u064a\u062d<\/strong> \u062a\u0628\u0639\u0627 \u0644\u0639\u064f\u0646\u0635\u0631\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 (\u062a\u0628\u0639\u0627 \u0644\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u064f\u0646\u062a\u062c\u0647 \u0644\u0646\u0627 \u062e\u0631\u064a\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639\u0644) \u0648\u0643\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0637\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u064f\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0634\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0643 \u0641\u064a \u0628\u064a\u0626\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0641\u0639 \u0644\u062d\u0631\u0641\u0647\u0627 \u0646\u0627\u062d\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0647\u062f\u0627\u0641\u0647. \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627: \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u062a\u0642\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648\u0647\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0628\u0639\u0627 \u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a\u0646: \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u062c\u064a\u062d \u062f\u0648\u0646 \u062a\u062f\u062e\u0644\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0623\u0645\u0648\u0644. \u0648\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0644\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0643\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a \u0644\u0623\u064a \u0642\u0648\u0629 \u062a\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0634\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0643 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0636\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0647\u0648 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0645\u064f\u0646\u0637\u0644\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u062e\u0644 \u0648\u0638\u0631\u0648\u0641\u0647 \u0648\u0645\u0639\u0637\u064a\u0627\u062a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0626\u064a<\/strong>\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0646\u0642\u0644 \u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0636\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u0646 (\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0627\u062c\u062d) \u0644 (\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0623\u0645\u0648\u0644) \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u062a\u0628\u0639\u0627<\/strong> \u0644\u0645\u0635\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0629 (\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u062a\u062e\u0644\u064a\u0642\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628).<\/p>\n

\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0627) \u0645\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a\u0629:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u062c. \u0648\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0644 \u0645\u0627\u0633\u0628\u0642\u060c \u064a\u0631\u0649 \u0623\u063a\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a\u064a\u0646 (\u062e\u0635\u0648\u0635\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0628\u064a\u0626\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0633\u0643\u0631\u064a\u0629) \u0623\u0646 \u0639\u0646\u0635\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0646\u0638\u0648\u0645\u0629 \u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a \u0644\u064a\u0633\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0629 (\u0645\u0639 \u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0636\u0639\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u0628\u0646\u0633\u062e \u0634\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0646\u0629)\u060c \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u062f\u0629<\/strong> (\u0623\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0643\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0645 \u0648\u0623\u064a\u0636\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062e\u0628\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0629). \u0648\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0647\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u062a\u0631\u062c\u064a\u062d \u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0647\u0648 \u0648\u0636\u0639 \u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0645\u062a\u0637\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062a \u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0643\u0644 \u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648<\/strong> \u0648\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0631\u064a\u0639\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627.<\/u><\/p>\n

\u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0645\u0627\u064a\u062c\u0639\u0644 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062e\u0637\u064a\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a \u0623\u0628\u0639\u062f \u0645\u0627\u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0639\u0646 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u064a\u0643\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u062e\u0627\u0631\u0637\u0629 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642 \u064a\u064f\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0648\u0636\u0639\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a (\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0645\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0639\u0628\u0629 \u0648\u0633\u0648\u0641\u062a \u0648\u064a\u0631) \u2013 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0641\u0634\u0644\u062a \u0628\u0641\u062f\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0643\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0631\u0627 \u0648\u0631\u0627\u0646\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0646\u0627\u062a. \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0645\u0627\u064a\u064f\u0641\u0631\u0651\u0642 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0635\u0627\u062d\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0628\u0631\u0629 \u062d\u064a\u0646 \u064a\u064f\u062c\u0631\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u062a\u0649 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u062a\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0648\u062f\u0648\u0646 \u062d\u062a\u0649 \u0642\u062f\u0631\u062a\u0647 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0641 \u0645\u0631\u0627\u062d\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0634\u062e\u0635 \u0622\u062e\u0631 \u064a\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631 \u0643\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0629. \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0635 \u0645\u0627\u0639\u0646\u0627\u0647 \u0643\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0632\u0641\u064a\u062a\u0633 \u0623\u0646 \u0623\u0647\u0645 \u062e\u0635\u0627\u0626\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0628\u0642\u0631\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0628 \u0647\u064a :<\/p>\n

Coup D\u2019oeil<\/p>\n

\u0623\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0641\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0647\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0642\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u064f\u062a\u064a\u062d \u0644\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0635\u0644 \u0644\u062e\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0642\u0631\u0628 \u0644\u0644\u062f\u0642\u0629\u060c \u062f\u0648\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u062a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0646 \u0643\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0644\u0647\u0627.. \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0645\u0627\u064a\u064f\u0633\u0645\u0649 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a \u0645\u062b\u0644\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644<\/p>\n

Trained Intuition<\/p>\n

\u0648\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u063a\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0628\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u0627\u062c\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0626\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u2013 \u0623\u0648 \u0623\u064a \u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0629 \u0625\u0646\u0633\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0642\u062f\u0629 \u2013 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0623\u0628\u0633\u0637 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0641 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0642\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0631\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062d\u064a\u0646 \u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0644\u0627\u064a\u064f\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0631\u0628 (\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u062b\u0644\u0627) \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649\u060c \u0641\u064a\u0628\u0642\u0649 \u0639\u0646\u0635\u0631 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0628\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u0646\u0627\u0635\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0644\u064a\u0644\u060c \u0648\u0625\u0646 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u062a\u0623\u062e\u0631\u0629..<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u0644\u0645\u0632\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0637\u0644\u0627\u0639:<\/p>\n

Strategy and Defence Planning. \u00a0\u00a0Colin Gray<\/p>\n

Structure Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis. Heuer and Pherson<\/p>\n

Intelligence Analysis: a Target Centric Approach. Robert Clark<\/p>\n

Scenario Planning. M. Lindgren<\/p>\n

Scenario Planning in Organizations. Thomas Chermack<\/p>\n

Foundations of Future Studies. Wendell Bell<\/p>\n

The Black Swan. Naseem Taleb<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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